Bitcoin continues to form a new phase of a downward trend. After a sell signal formed on the daily timeframe, there have already been at least two sell signals on the 4-hour timeframe. The price has created "bearish" FVG (Fair Value Gaps) twice and has reacted to them each time. Thus, the downward movement remains in effect even on the lower timeframe, and there are no signs of its completion.

On the daily timeframe, the cryptocurrency continues to fall below the ascending trend line, which also serves as a liquidity pool. If we consider this trend line as a trend line, the price has broken below it; therefore, according to technical analysis principles, the trend has changed to bearish. If we consider this trend line as a liquidity pool, the price was required to drop below it to "collect" traders' stop-loss orders and pending sell orders. As there are currently no signs indicating an end to Bitcoin's decline, we expect the drop to continue with a target of $70,800.

The fundamental background still has no impact on the cryptocurrency market. Yesterday evening, the FOMC meeting results were announced, with no effect on Bitcoin. Jerome Powell did not promise a reduction in the key rate at the next meetings, but rather warned of a potential new "shutdown," which could make monetary policy easing, for example, in March, impossible. Powell also did not mention any possible QE (Quantitative Easing) program that could significantly help Bitcoin. The market continues to buy silver, gold, and stocks, while Bitcoin has simply remained stable in recent months. However, the downward trend remains.

Overall picture of BTC/USD on 1D

On the daily timeframe, Bitcoin continues to form a downward trend, and the correction is likely over. The trend structure is bearish, and the CHOCH (Change of Character) line currently sits at $107,300. Only above this level can we consider the downward trend to have ended. In 2026, Bitcoin could fall as low as $60,000, from where its last ascent began. Bitcoin reacted eloquently to the "bearish" FVG; a trading signal has been formed, confirmation received, and the decline has started. The goal for a new phase of the downward movement may be the level of $70,800 – the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level. The "bullish" FVG has turned bearish, becoming an IFVG (Internal Fair Value Gap) that now represents a new area of POI (Point of Interest) for selling.

Overall picture of BTC/USD on 4H

On the 4-hour timeframe, the price has exited the sideways channel it spent a month and a half in. However, the rise of Bitcoin was short-lived, as the bearish FVG pattern on the daily timeframe halted the upward price movement. Even above the last bearish FVG on the 4-hour timeframe, Bitcoin was unable to break through after three attempts. Thus, there are currently no grounds to expect any growth for the world's first cryptocurrency. If bullish patterns begin to form, the decline will be put on pause, but traders should be reminded that any upward movement of Bitcoin at this time is inherently a correction.

Trading recommendations for BTC/USD:

Bitcoin continues to establish a full downward trend. In the near future, a decline to $70,800 (the 50.0% Fibonacci level of the three-year upward trend) should be expected. Among new areas of POI for selling on the daily timeframe, the bearish IFVG in the $92,500–$95,000 range can be highlighted. The price may return to this pattern and resume the decline from there. On the 4-hour timeframe, there are currently no unexploited bearish patterns, so new short positions will only be possible in the $92,500–$95,000 range.

Explanations for the Illustrations:

• CHOCH – change in trend structure.
• Liquidity – Stop Loss orders by traders that market makers use to build their positions.
• FVG – Fair Value Gap. The price passes through such areas very quickly, indicating a complete absence of one side in the market. Subsequently, the price tends to return and react to such areas.
• IFVG – Inverted Fair Value Gap. After returning to such an area, the price does not react to it and pierces it impulsively, then tests it from the other side.
• OB – Order Block. A candle on which the market maker opened a position to grab liquidity for forming their own position in the opposite direction.