Today, the USD/JPY pair is attempting to recover after Friday's decline—but so far, without success.

On Friday, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released July data showing that only 73,000 new jobs were added to the economy, falling short of market expectations of 110,000. Additionally, total nonfarm payroll employment was revised downward for May—from 144,000 to 19,000—and for June—from 147,000 to 14,000.

Other components of the report showed a slight increase in the unemployment rate from 4.1% in June to 4.2%, in line with analyst forecasts. Average hourly earnings rose from 3.8% to 3.9%. Market reaction was swift: traders began pricing in an over 80% probability that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates at the September meeting.

The CME Group's FedWatch tool now indicates a projected Fed rate cut of approximately 65 basis points by the end of the year. It also became known that Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler will leave her post early, on August 8. This news triggered a sharp decline in U.S. Treasury yields and added pressure on the dollar.

The USD/JPY exchange rate has fallen by more than 350 points from the 151.00 level seen in late March. However, the pair found support at the psychological level of 147.00 during the Asian session on Monday. The limited upward potential of the Japanese yen is linked to expectations that the Bank of Japan does not plan to raise rates immediately, due to a lack of strong inflationary pressure.

At its latest meeting, the Bank of Japan revised its inflation forecast and reiterated its readiness to raise the key rate—provided that economic and price trends follow their projections. Governor Kazuo Ueda stated that inflation risks are underestimated and did not rule out a rate hike in the near future. He emphasized that decisions will be made based on real-time data and without bias. However, recent elections and the ruling Liberal Democratic Party's defeat may delay potential rate hikes, putting additional pressure on the yen.

For better trading opportunities today, attention should be paid to the upcoming release of U.S. factory orders data—which may provide a market catalyst in the second half of the session, ahead of Tuesday's publication of the Bank of Japan's monetary policy meeting minutes.

From a technical standpoint, Friday's break below the 200-day SMA and the closing under the 148.00 and 147.60 levels served as key bearish triggers. However, daily chart oscillators—while having retreated from higher levels—have not yet entered negative territory. This, in turn, is helping the pair to find support near the 147.00 psychological level and the 100-day SMA around 146.77, which remains a critical level. A sustained break below this support would open the path toward 146.00 and possibly lower.

On the other hand, the recovery is facing immediate resistance at the 148.00 round level. A break above it could lead the pair to test the horizontal barrier at 148.50. Further gains may push spot prices toward the next psychological level of 149.00. A firm move above that level would shift the bias in favor of the bulls, allowing USD/JPY to challenge the key 150.00 threshold, with some intermediate resistance from the 200-day SMA near 149.50.