The upcoming week is not packed with major events for the EUR/USD pair. Nevertheless, the market will likely react sharply even to secondary macroeconomic reports from the U.S.
This is because the July NonFarm Payrolls, published at the end of last week, significantly redrew the fundamental picture for the greenback. Figuratively speaking, "the emperor has no clothes": the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) refuted the previously reported strong employment growth in May–June, calling the earlier figures incorrect. The harsh reality shocked the markets: it turned out that only 19,000 jobs were created in May (instead of the initially reported 139,000), and just 14,000 in June (instead of the claimed 147,000). A downward revision of 258,000 jobs is not mere "statistical noise"—it's a massive blow to the U.S. dollar, whose growth had been largely underpinned by persistent tightness in the U.S. labor market.
Unsurprisingly, following the NonFarm revision and detailed analysis of GDP growth components, traders began to question the stability of the U.S. economy. The likelihood of a slowdown or even a recession in the coming quarters has surged.
As mentioned earlier, the reported 3% U.S. GDP growth was mostly cosmetic and driven by "accounting enhancement algorithms." A sharp 30% drop in imports (which reduces the subtractive components of GDP) provided a significant boost to the headline figure, while domestic demand and investments remained weak. Stripping away the external trade and so-called inventory effects, real economic growth was estimated to be just 1.2%–1.4%.
This is why all subsequent macroeconomic indicators will be viewed through the lens of these recent releases. For instance, the ISM Manufacturing Index, published 1.5 hours after the NFP release, added further pressure on the dollar. First, the index remained in contraction territory (below the 50-point threshold) for the fifth consecutive month. Second, it dropped to 48.0 versus the expected rise to 49.5, signaling continued deterioration in the manufacturing sector. Weak orders and a steep decline in employment again reminded markets of persistent risks to the overall U.S. economy.
On Tuesday, August 5, the ISM Services PMI will be released in the U.S. In May, this index dipped into contraction at 49.9 but rebounded to 50.8 in June. Forecasts suggest a further increase in July to 51.5. However, if the index falls below the 50-point threshold again, the dollar will come under strong pressure, as the services sector is one of the last strongholds supporting GDP growth. As is well known, this is the largest segment of the U.S. economy, accounting for more than 70% of GDP and over 75% of all jobs. If ISM Services falls below 50, it would indicate that the slowdown has become widespread—both in manufacturing and services.
This is arguably the most important macro report of the week. Other releases are less impactful but may still contribute to the overall fundamental picture.
For example, on Monday, August 4, the U.S. will publish factory orders data. This is a forward-looking indicator of manufacturing activity, signaling changes in demand from consumers and businesses. Forecasts suggest that June orders will decline by 4.9% after an 8.2% increase in the previous month. This result—especially alongside ISM Manufacturing contraction—will add further pressure on the greenback by highlighting weakening industrial demand.
On Thursday, August 7, U.S. unit labor cost (ULC) data will be released. Most analysts expect weak growth of 1.4% in Q2, compared to 6.6% in Q1. If ULC comes in at or below forecasts, it would signal slowing wage growth—an additional argument in favor of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September.
Indeed, after the July NFP release, the probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut at the next Fed meeting rose to 80% (up from 35% beforehand). In this context, several speeches from Fed members during the week could strengthen or moderate dovish sentiment.
On Wednesday, August 6, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly will speak. She doesn't have voting rights this year. In July, she verbally joined the dovish camp (though voted to hold rates steady), stating her support for two rate cuts by year-end. Given recent developments, her rhetoric may soften even further.
Also on Wednesday, Boston Fed President Susan Collins will speak. She holds voting rights this year and is considered a centrist, typically offering cautious comments. If she leans dovish despite her usual prudence, the dollar could face significant pressure.
Additionally, Fed Governor Lisa Cook (a permanent FOMC voter) is scheduled to speak on Wednesday. Known for her moderately risk-averse stance, any dovish shift in her tone could strongly affect EUR/USD.
The following day, August 7, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic will speak (he does not vote in 2025). He prefers a very cautious approach and has stated he expects only one rate cut by year-end—provided the labor market remains resilient and inflation starts easing. After Friday's "surprise," his tone may significantly soften.
On Friday, August 8, St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem, who holds a voting seat this year, will share his views. Musalem supports a wait-and-see approach—he stated in July that the effects of tariff hikes will fully reflect in inflation only by late 2025 or early 2026. Whether the July NFPs changed his position remains an open question.
Thus, key macro reports and Fed comments this week may exert further pressure on the dollar.
On the daily chart, EUR/USD is trading between the middle and lower lines of the Bollinger Bands indicator, above the Kumo cloud but below the Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen lines. A renewed uptrend can only be discussed if the pair breaks above the resistance at 1.1650, which corresponds to the middle Bollinger Band on D1. In that case, the Ichimoku indicator would generate a bullish "Parade of Lines" signal, and the pair would move between the middle and upper Bollinger Bands. Long positions should be considered only after EUR/USD buyers surpass the intermediate resistance level at 1.1590 (bulls failed to break this target on Friday), which corresponds to the Tenkan-sen line. Subsequent price targets would then be 1.1650 and 1.1690 (the lower boundary of the Kumo cloud on H4).
