Technical outlook:

USDJPY is seen to be carving a lower high in the 137.00-20 zone before reversing lower towards the 134.80-135.00 initial support. The currency pair grew to 137.75 earlier this week before hitting resistance and pulling back. Bears are still poised to hold prices below 137.75 and remain in control going forward.

USDJPY has remained in control of dollar bulls since January 2021, after hitting the 102.59 low. Bulls have managed to produce a religious uptrend thereafter, pushing prices through 137.75 recently. Ideally, bears will be preparing to come back in control from here to retrace the entire rally between 102.59 and 137.75.

USDJPY remains supported at around 134.80, followed by 131.50 and lower. At the same time, interim resistance is seen towards 137.75. A break below 134.80 is needed to confirm that the ongoing trend is reversing for the next several weeks. A break below the immediate trend line will be seen as an invitation for bears as they prepare to drag the price towards the 124.00-50 zone.

Going forward:

USDJPY might have carved a meaningful top at around 137.75 and the next big move could be seen on the lower side from here. Also, note that the recent swing highs have been accompanied by a strong bearish divergence on the 4H RSI. This could be a strong indication of a potential trend reversal towards 124.00-50, which is the Fibonacci 0.382 retracement of the entire rally between 102.59 and 137.75.

Trading plan:

Potential drop towards 124.00 against 138.50

Good luck!