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04.08.2025 08:14 AM
Although there is potential for a limited strong retracement, USD/JPY is expected to weaken as long as it doesn't break above 152.16, Monday, August 4, 2025.

USD/JPY – Monday, August 4, 2025.

With the EMA still forming a Death Cross and the RSI(14) indicator at the Bearish Neutral level, USD/JPY has the potential to continue strengthening today.

Key Levels

1. Resistance 2: 152.16.

2. Resistance 1: 149.78.

3. Pivot: 148.55.

4. Support 1: 146.17.

5. Support 2: 144.94.

Tactical Scenario

Pressure Risk Zone: If the price breaks through and closes below 146.17, USD/JPY has the potential to continue its decline to 144.94.

Momentum Extension Bias: If USD/JPY successfully breaks through and closes below 144.94, as well as momentum and volatility support this decline, then USD/JPY has the potential to continue its decline to 142.56.

Invalidation Level / Bias Revision

Downside bias is restrained if the price rebounds and breaks through and closes above 152.16.

Technical Summary

EMA(50): 148.46.

EMA(200): 148.88.

RSI(14): 40.79.

Economic News Release Agenda:

From Japan, there will be a JPY-Monetary Base y/y release at 06:50 WIB, and later tonight, when the US market opens, there will be a US-Factory Orders m/m release at 21:00 WIB.

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Summary
Urgency
Analytic
Arief Makmur
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