Bitcoin and Ethereum experienced a slight increase yesterday, but it is unlikely that the upward potential will last long. Bitcoin is still trading below $63,000, while Ethereum cannot seem to consolidate above $1,650.

Yesterday, Donald Trump made a statement that instantly shifted sentiment in the financial markets: the US has agreed to end the war with Iran. According to the president, an agreement has essentially been reached—Iran will not obtain nuclear weapons—and in the coming days, the parties will resolve all remaining issues.

For the markets, this signifies de-escalation of the very geopolitical conflict that has been a major source of pressure on risk assets since late May. The recent US strikes on Iran and sanctions against the agency controlling the Strait of Hormuz were what triggered the collapse of the cryptocurrency market in June.

Yesterday, Bitcoin and Ethereum reacted to Trump's statements with a swift rise, as the market quickly began to reprice the geopolitical risk premium priced in over the past weeks. The logic is straightforward: resolving the conflict with Iran alleviates the threat of interruptions in oil supplies through the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20% of the world's oil traffic passes. This implies a potential decrease in inflationary pressure from energy prices—a factor that drove the May CPI to 4.2% and prompted the Federal Reserve to consider raising interest rates. Lower inflation expectations will lead to a softer monetary rhetoric, thus improving conditions for risk assets in general and cryptocurrencies in particular.

If an agreement is signed in the coming days, the market will gain two positive impulses simultaneously: geopolitical de-escalation and decreased inflationary pressure. For Bitcoin and Ethereum, which have endured seventeen consecutive red days in ETFs and a drop below $60,000, this could be the catalyst needed for a reversal.

As for short-term trading, the strategy and conditions are described below.

Bitcoin

Buying Scenario

Scenario #1: I plan to buy Bitcoin today at an entry point around $63,400, targeting $64,300. Near $64,300, I will exit my buy positions and sell immediately for a pullback. Before buying on a breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is below the current price and that the Awesome indicator is above zero.

Scenario #2: Bitcoin can also be purchased from the lower boundary of $62,700 if there is no market reaction to a breakout above it, targeting levels $63,400 and $64,300.

Selling Scenario

Scenario #1: I plan to sell Bitcoin today after reaching an entry point around $62,700, targeting a drop to $61,700. Near $61,700, I will exit my sell positions and buy immediately for a pullback. Before selling on a breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is above the current price and that the Awesome indicator is below zero.

Scenario #2: Bitcoin can also be sold from the upper boundary of $63,400 if there is no market reaction to a breakout above, targeting levels $62,700 and $61,700.

Ethereum

Buying Scenario

Scenario #1: I plan to buy Ethereum today at an entry point around $1,662, targeting $1,688. Near $1,688, I will exit my buy positions and sell immediately for a pullback. Before buying on a breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is below the current price and that the Awesome indicator is above zero.

Scenario #2: Ethereum can also be purchased from the lower boundary of $1,647 if there is no market reaction to a breakout above it, targeting levels $1,662 and $1,688.

Selling Scenario

Scenario #1: I plan to sell Ethereum today after reaching an entry point around $1,647, targeting a drop to $1,615. Near $1,615, I will exit my sell positions and buy immediately for a pullback. Before selling on a breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is above the current price and that the Awesome indicator is below zero.

Scenario #2: Ethereum can also be sold from the upper boundary of $1,662 if there is no market reaction to a breakout above, targeting levels $1,647 and $1,615.