The EUR/USD pair has been rising for the fourth consecutive day on market expectations of a ceasefire between Iran and the United States. In the current situation, it's hard to know where to begin, so I'll start with technical analysis. As we can see, there was a reaction to bullish imbalance 12, after which a new upward move began. In recent days, I have been drawing traders' attention to this pattern. As a result, traders had opportunities to open long positions, which are now showing strong profits.

As for the news backdrop, hostilities in the Middle East are still ongoing. So it's unclear whether it even makes sense to talk about a ceasefire when the U.S. has attacked another Iranian oil refinery, Iran is launching missiles at Kuwait, and Israel continues bombing Lebanon. Personally, it's hard to understand who agreed to what kind of ceasefire if it lasted only about 15 hours. Nevertheless, it must be acknowledged that the parties are moving toward peace negotiations, and that is already a significant positive. Against this backdrop, demand for the safe-haven dollar is declining, and the bullish trend is getting closer to resuming.

The entire rise of the U.S. dollar over the past one and a half to two months has been driven by geopolitics. As soon as the U.S. and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire, bears immediately retreated, and bulls moved into action. At the moment, the ceasefire is quite fragile, but what matters is that a bullish signal has been generated and EUR/USD is rising rapidly. What more is needed? I have repeatedly stated that I do not believe in the end of the bullish trend, despite the break of important trend-forming lows. The price movement of the past two months could turn into a bearish trend if geopolitics continues to support the dollar. However, at this stage, I still doubt the bears' ability to maintain a sustained attack over a long period. Further strengthening of the U.S. dollar is possible only if no ceasefire is achieved and the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked.

The technical picture has changed significantly over the past couple of days. First, the price may soon react to imbalance 11 and resume a decline. If the ceasefire completely fails, this scenario will become the main one. Second, the price reacted to imbalance 12, forming a bullish signal within a bullish trend. Third, a new bullish imbalance is likely to form this week, which will serve not only as an area of interest for buyers but also as a support zone for the euro. This means traders will have new opportunities to open long positions in the future.

Thursday's news flow was quite interesting. The third and final estimate of U.S. GDP for Q4 came in at +0.5%, which is 0.9% lower than the initial estimate and 3.9% lower than the Q3 figure. Thus, even if some bears were preparing to launch a new attack, this data made it unlikely. Other reports of the day were of secondary importance and, as usual, failed to attract market attention. It is even possible that GDP had little to do with the dollar's decline, as geopolitics remains the dominant factor.

There are still plenty of reasons for bulls to stay active, and even the outbreak of conflict in the Middle East has not reduced them. Structurally and globally, Trump's policies—which led to a significant decline in the dollar last year—have not changed. In the near term, the U.S. dollar may strengthen due to risk aversion, but this factor cannot support it indefinitely and would require ongoing escalation in the Middle East. There are no other strong drivers supporting the dollar. I still do not believe in a bearish trend. The dollar has received temporary support, but what will sustain further bearish pressure on EUR/USD?

News Calendar for the U.S. and the Eurozone:

• Eurozone – Consumer Price Index in Germany (06:00 UTC)
• U.S. – Consumer Price Index (12:30 UTC)
• U.S. – University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (14:00 UTC)

On April 10, the economic calendar includes three events, with U.S. inflation standing out. The impact of the news flow on market sentiment on Friday may be strong in the second half of the day.

EUR/USD Forecast and Trading Tips:

In my view, the pair remains in the process of forming a bullish trend. The news backdrop shifted sharply about a month and a half ago, but the trend cannot yet be considered fully reversed or canceled. Thus, bulls may soon launch a new advance if geopolitics allows it.

In the near term, bears may receive a signal from imbalance 11, but if geopolitics does not worsen, this signal may not materialize. Bulls already had opportunities to open long positions based on the imbalance 12 signal, targeting around 1.1670. This target has been reached, and the upward movement may continue toward this year's highs. However, there is one condition: the Middle East conflict must at least move toward de-escalation and peace.