Trade review and tips for trading the Japanese yen

The test of 148.43 occurred when the MACD indicator had just started moving up from the zero level, confirming a valid entry point for buying the dollar, which resulted in only a 10-point increase.

Today, U.S. inflation data will be released, including the headline Consumer Price Index and its core reading excluding volatile categories such as food and energy. In addition, a speech by FOMC member Thomas Barkin is scheduled. If the data indicates stronger inflationary pressures in the U.S. economy, it could significantly alter the Federal Reserve's plans for a potential interest rate cut in September this year, further widening the policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and the Federal Reserve and supporting the dollar.

Thomas Barkin's speech will be another key event of the day. The market will closely analyze his comments on inflation and the U.S. economic outlook to gauge the Fed's future actions. Confirmation of a commitment to a hawkish stance could increase pressure on the yen and support the dollar.

For intraday strategy, I will focus mainly on implementing Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy signal

Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today upon reaching the entry point near 148.61 (green line on the chart), targeting growth to 148.95 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 148.95, I will exit buy positions and open sell positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 30–35-point move down from that level). A solid rise in the pair today is possible in line with the ongoing bullish market. Important: Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above zero and just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of 148.36 while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and trigger a reversal upward. Growth toward the opposite levels of 148.61 and 148.95 can be expected.

Sell signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today after a breakout of 148.36 (red line on the chart), which will lead to a quick decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 147.93, where I will exit sell positions and immediately open buy positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25-point move up from that level). Downward pressure on the pair will return if U.S. inflation data is weak. Important: Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below zero and just beginning to fall from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of 148.61 while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a reversal downward. A decline toward the opposite levels of 148.36 and 147.97 can be expected.

Chart notes:

• Thin green line – entry price at which the instrument can be bought.
• Thick green line – projected price for setting Take Profit or manually locking in profit, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
• Thin red line – entry price at which the instrument can be sold.
• Thick red line – projected price for setting Take Profit or manually locking in profit, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to consider overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner Forex traders should be very cautious when deciding to enter the market. Before major fundamental reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade with large volumes. Remember that successful trading requires having a clear trading plan, such as the one outlined above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.